A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. They writes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
